Sunday, April 12, 2009

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இந்த லோக்சபா தேர்தலில் யார் ஜெயிக்க போகிறார்கள் என்பதைப் பற்றிய ஒரு சிறிய அலசல் இது. கிட்டத்தட்ட எல்லா கட்சிகளும் தங்களது வேட்பாளர்களை அறிவித்து விட்டன. இதில் யார் நிறைய தொகுதிகளை வென்று முதலிடம் பிடிக்க போகிறார்கள் என்பது இன்னும் புரியாத புதிராகவே உள்ளது. இதில் இலங்கை பிரச்சினை யார் ஜெயிக்கப் போகிறார்கள் என்பதை தீர்மானிக்கும் ஒரு விஷயமாக இருக்குமா?. திமுகவின் சாதனைகள் இந்த தேர்தலில் அதற்கு முதன்மை பெற்று தருமா?. இப்படி பல கேள்விகள் நமக்குள் இருக்கின்றன.

இருந்தாலும் இந்த தேர்தலில் திமுக ஜெயிக்கும் என்பது என் பலமான கருத்தாக உள்ளது. காரணம் அந்த அரசின் சாதனைகள். ஒரு கிலோ அரிசி ஒரு ரூபாய் என்ற திட்டம் ஏழைகள் மற்றும் நடுத்தர மக்களின் பலமான வரவேற்பை பெற்றுள்ளன. ஏழை விவசாயிகளின் ஏழாயிரம் கோடி ரூபாய் தள்ளுபடி ஒரு நல்ல விஷயம். அதே மாதிரி மத்திய அரசு அறிவித்த 60000 கோடி ரூபாய் தள்ளுபடி இந்த தேர்தலில் பிரதிபலிக்கும் என்பதும் எனது கருத்தாக உள்ளது. இலவச கலர் டிவி திட்டம், ஏழைகளுக்கு இரண்டு ஏக்கர் திட்டம், ஒரு லட்சம் ரூபாய் இன்சூரன்ஸ் திட்டம் என்று பல திட்டங்களை திமுக அரசு செயல்படுத்தியுள்ளது. இவையெல்லாம் இந்த திமுக அரசுக்கு வெற்றியைப் பெற்றுக் கொடுக்கும் என்பது என் யூகம்.

ஆனால் இந்த தேர்தலில் திமுக அரசின் கூட்டணி கொஞ்சல் பலவீனமாகவே உள்ளது. போன தேர்தலில் 40/40 என்று ஜெயித்தவர்கள் இந்த தேர்தலில் கண்டிப்பாக அந்த விகிதத்தில் ஜெயிக்க முடியாது என்பது அனைவரும் அறிந்ததே. அதே மாதிரி அதிமுக இந்த தேர்தலில் பலமான கூட்டணியுடன் களமிறங்குகிறது. அது அதிமுக கட்சிக்கு ஒரு பழம். ஆனால் அதிமுக ஒரு பொறுப்புள்ள எதிர்கட்சியாக செயல்பட்டுள்ளதா என்று பார்த்தால் கண்டிப்பாக இல்லை என்றே சொல்ல தோன்றும். ஆ ஊ என்றால் ஜெயலலிதா சிறுதாவூர் பங்களாவுக்குள் ஓடி மறைந்து கொள்கிறார். பாமகவுக்கு உள்ள மரியாதையை ராமதாசே கெடுத்துக் கொண்டார். வைகோவை பற்றி சொல்ல தேவையில்லை. ஒன்றுக்கும் ரெண்டுக்கும் ஜெயலலிதாவிடம் கையேந்திக் கொண்டிருக்கிறார். அவர் காட்சியில் அவரைத் தவிர வேறு யாரும் இல்லை. நாஞ்சில் சம்பத்தும் சிறையில் இருக்கிறார்.

இதில் கேப்டன் விஜயகாந்த் என்ற ஒருவர் தான் தேறுகிறார். இந்த தேர்தலில் தனியாக களம் காண்பது அவருக்கு மிகுந்த பலத்தைக் கொடுத்துள்ளது. மற்ற கட்சிகளின் வயிற்றில் புளியைக் கரைத்துள்ளது. இளைஞர்களின் ஒட்டு அந்த கட்சிக்கு நிறையவே உள்ளது. நான் கேட்ட நிறைய பேர் விஜயகாந்துக்கு ஒட்டு போடுவார்கள் என்றே சொன்னார்கள். அதை வைத்து பார்க்கும் போது இந்த தேர்தலில் அவர் ஒரு அசைக்க முடியாத சக்தியாக விளங்குவார் என்பது மறுக்க முடியாத உண்மை. இந்த தேர்தலில் கண்டிப்பாக 15 சதவீத ஓட்டுக்களை பெறுவார் என்று நம்புகிறேன். சரி இந்த தேர்தலில் எந்தெந்த கட்சி எத்தனை இடங்களைப் பெறும் என்று இங்கே கொடுத்துள்ளேன்.

திமுக - 23

அதிமுக - 13

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தேமுதிக இந்த தேர்தலில் நான் மேலே குறிப்பிட்டுள்ள நான்கு தொகுதிகளில் ஜெயித்தால் அவருக்கு அது மிகப்பெரிய வெற்றியாக இருக்கும். இது லோக்சபா தேர்தல் என்றாலும் மாநில அரசின் சாதனைகள் திடமாக பிரதிபலிக்கும்.
சரி இலங்கைப் பிரச்சினைப் பற்றி பேசவே இல்லையே என்று கேட்கிறீர்களா?. ஆனால் அந்த பிரச்சினை இந்த தேர்தலில் ஒரு தீர்மானிக்கும் சக்தியாக இருக்காது. பெரும்பாலான மக்கள் அதை ஒரு தேர்தல் பிரச்சினையாக நினைக்கவில்லை.

149 comments:

Indy said...

அண்ணே , தேமூதிக ஒரு தொகுதியில் வெற்றி பெற்றாலே அது பெரிய விஷயம். I've been observing politics for quite a long time. வைக்கோ கட்சி ஆரம்பித்த பொது அவருக்கு இதை விட கூட்டம் வந்தது.
I bet, Vijayakanth party will not win any seats. this is not panchayath board election.

Vivek said...

ayya, naan thangaLin thoughts il irunthu maaRupadugiraen! endha oru thaerthalai paarththalum, vaakkugaL pirigindRa pozhuthu adhu DMK katchikku mattumae saathagamaaga amainthuLLana. andha vaakkugaL pirigindra muthanmaiyana vaelaiyai thiru captain avargaL seivaar endRae enakku thondRugirathu. Oru MP thoguthiyai thann sontha selvaakkaal vendRu kaatuvarae yaanaal adhu avarathu katchikku balaththai tharum. Oru MLA, Oru MP enbathu nalla aarambam captain katchikku. munbu oru kaalaththil irandae irandu thoguthigaLai mattumae vendRa BJP pin varum naaLil naattai aaLavillaiya? vijayakanth avargaLin eNNam dravida katchikkum maatraaga avar katchiyai vaLarppathu aduthu varum satta sabai thaerthalil aatchiyai pudippathu. indha "reNdu" mattum thaan avarathu "orae" kurikkOL. Kootani balam vaainthathu ADMK enbathu ennaal oththuk koLLa mudiyatha ondRu. ADMK uruvaakki irupathu "Negative" kootaNi. MDMK - yaegapatta kaduppil irukkiraar vaiko. "kaekra" thoguthiyai kodu endraal "thOkkra" thoguthiyai koduththu irukkirar Jaya. avar katchiyil irunthu innum DMK katchiku sellamal iruppathu avar oruvar mattum thaan. avar paesuvathai paarththal endha jailil naam iruppOm endru "toss" pOttu kondu iruppaar ena thondRugirathu. PMK - Palti Mannan Katchi adhu. Thaerthal naeraththil "Palti" adippathai vazhakkamaaga konduLLa oru katchi. andha katchikku irukkum orae kOLgai "Palti" adippathu thaan. Amma katchikku vanthaal Annanai thittuvaar. Annan katchikku vanthaal Ammavai thittuvaar. IvargaL pOtti idum 7 thoguthiyaiyum vijaykanth katchi paarthuk kOLLum. DMK virku vaelaiyae illai. ADMK odu kootu saernthu thaerthalai santhiththu pinnar Congress aatchi amaiththal angae pOiyum kathavai thattum indha Palti Mannan Katchi. Communist party pOttiyidum thoguthigaLai naam orae oru vishayathirkku thaan payan paduthikkolla vaeNdum. adhavathu avargaL ethirthu pOttiyidum vaetpaaLar eththanai latcha kaNakku vaakku vithyasathil vendRaargaL endra statistics therinthu koLLa. Jaya Madam uruvaakki iruppathu MEGA-NEGATIVE kootaNi. indha katchigaLai kootaNi vaithuk koNdaar endra orae kaaranathirkae pala seatugaLai avar katchi thanipatta selvaakkil vetRi peraamal izakka koodum. Yaar vendraalum thOtraalum vetRi vijayakanthirkae!

DHANS said...

do not think srilankan issue will not be an issue this time... its going to change the election results.

vijaykanth is going to get more votes but i dont think he will will 4 seats, as for my expectation ADMK-28 DMK10 DMDK 2

Vivek said...

naan solla maRantha kadhai. srilankan issue thamizhaga arasiyal katchigaLukku vaeNdumaanaal oru periya prechinaiyaga, oota sakthiyaaga irukkalam aanal thamizhaga makkaL maththiyil oru periya thaakkaththai adhu yaerpaduththavillai enbathu en karuththu. indha thaerthalil indha issuevai vaiththu vote vangi uyaraathu enbathum en karuththu.

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